Introduction | p. 1 |
A Very Brief History of Financial Time Series | p. 1 |
Contents of the Monograph | p. 3 |
Parameter Estimation in a General Conditionally Heteroscedastic Time Series Model | p. 4 |
Whittle Estimation in GARCH(1,1) | p. 10 |
Structure of the Monograph | p. 11 |
Some Mathematical Tools | p. 13 |
Stationarity and Ergodicity | p. 13 |
Uniform Convergence via the Ergodic Theorem | p. 17 |
Bochner Expectation | p. 19 |
The Ergodic Theorem for Sequences of B-valued Random Elements | p. 22 |
Matrix Norms | p. 23 |
Weak Convergence in <$>{op C}<$>(K,<$>{op R}^{dprime}<$>) | p. 24 |
Exponentially Fast Almost Sure Convergence | p. 26 |
Stochastic Recurrence Equations | p. 29 |
Financial Time Series: Facts and Models | p. 37 |
Stylized Facts of Financial Log-return Data | p. 39 |
Uncorrelated Observations | p. 39 |
Time-varying Volatility (Conditional Heteroscedasticity) | p. 41 |
Heavy-tailed and Asymmetric Unconditional Distribution | p. 41 |
Leverage Effects | p. 43 |
ARMA Models | p. 44 |
Conditionally Heteroscedastic Time Series Models | p. 48 |
AG ARCH Models | p. 48 |
EGARCH Models | p. 60 |
Stochastic Volatility Models | p. 61 |
Parameter Estimation: An Overview | p. 63 |
Estimation for ARM A Processes | p. 63 |
Gaussian Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation | p. 63 |
Least-squares Estimation | p. 68 |
Whittle Estimation | p. 69 |
Estimation for GARCH Processes | p. 72 |
Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation | p. 73 |
Whittle Estimation | p. 79 |
Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation in ConditionallyHeteroscedastic Time Series Models: A StochasticRecurrence Equations Approach | p. 85 |
Overview | p. 85 |
Stationarity, Ergodicity and Invertibility | p. 87 |
Existence of a Stationary Solution | p. 88 |
Invertibility | p. 92 |
Definition of the Function ht | p. 97 |
Consistency of the QMLE | p. 99 |
Examples: Consistency | p. 102 |
EGARCH | p. 102 |
AGARCH(p,q) | p. 105 |
The First and Second Derivatives of ht and ht | p. 110 |
Asymptotic Normality of the QMLE | p. 116 |
Examples: Asymptotic Normality | p. 120 |
AGARCH(p,q) | p. 120 |
EGARCH | p. 124 |
Non-Stationarities | p. 131 |
Fitting AGARCH(1,1) to the NYSE Composite Data | p. 131 |
A Simulation Study | p. 132 |
Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Conditionally Heteroscedastic Time Series Models | p. 141 |
Consistency of the MLE | p. 143 |
Main Result | p. 143 |
Consistency of the MLE with Respect to Student t Innovations | p. 146 |
Misspecification of the Innovations Density | p. 148 |
Inconsistency of the MLE | p. 148 |
Misspecfication of <$>{cal D}<$> in the GARCH(p,q) Model | p. 154 |
Asymptotic Normality of the MLE | p. 157 |
Asymptotic Normality of the MLE with Respect to Student t Innovations | p. 165 |
Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation in a Generalized Conditionally Heteroscedastic Time Series Model with Heavy-tailed Innovations | p. 169 |
Stable Limits of Infinite Variance Martingale Transforms | p. 170 |
Infinite Variance Stable Limits of the QMLE | p. 172 |
Limit Behavior of the QMLE in GARCH(p,q) with Heavy-tailed Innovations | p. 175 |
Verification of Strong Mixing with Geometric Rate of (Yt) in GARCH(p,q) | p. 179 |
Whittle Estimation in a Heavy-tailed GARCH(1,1) Model | p. 187 |
Introduction | p. 187 |
Limit Theory for the Sample Autocovariance Function | p. 189 |
Main Results | p. 191 |
Excursion: Yule-Walker Estimation in ARCH(p) | p. 194 |
Proof of Theorem 8.3.1 | p. 195 |
Proof of Theorem 8.3.2 | p. 200 |
References | p. 215 |
Author Index | p. 221 |
Index | p. 225 |
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved. |