Agent-Based and Individual-Based Modeling

Preface xiAcknowledgments xviiPart I: Agent-Based Modeling and NetLogo Basics 1Chapter 1: Models, Agent-Based Models, and the Modeling Cycle 31.1 Introduction, Motivation, and Objectives 31.2 What Is a Model? 41.3 The Modeling Cycle 71.4 What Is Agent-Based Modeling? How Is It Different? 91.5 Summary and Conclusions 111.6 Exercises 12Chapter 2: Getting Started with NetLogo 152.1 Introduction and Objectives 152.2 A Quick Tour of NetLogo 162.3 A Demonstration Program: Mushroom Hunt 182.4 Summary and Conclusions 292.5 Exercises 32Chapter 3: Describing and Formulating ABMs: The ODD Protocol 353.1 Introduction and Objectives 353.2 What Is ODD and Why Use It? 363.3 T he ODD Protocol 373.4 Our First Example: Virtual Corridors of Butterflies 423.5 Summary and Conclusions 443.6 Exercises 45Chapter 4: Implementing a First Agent-Based Model 474.1 Introduction and Objectives 474.2 ODD and NetLogo 474.3 Butterfly Hilltopping: From ODD to NetLogo 484.4 Comments and the Full Program 554.5 Summary and Conclusions 584.6 Exercises 59Chapter 5: From Animations to Science 615.1 Introduction and Objectives 615.2 Observation of Corridors 625.3 Analyzing the Model 675.4 Time-Series Results: Adding Plots and File Output 675.5 A Real Landscape 695.6 Summary and Conclusions 725.7 Exercises 72Chapter 6: Testing Your Program 756.1 Introduction and Objectives 756.2 Common Kinds of Errors 766.3 Techniques for Debugging and Testing NetLogo Programs 796.4 Documentation of Tests 896.5 An Example and Exercise: The Marriage Model 906.6 Summary and Conclusions 926.7 Exercises 94Part II: Model Design Concepts 95Chapter 7: Introduction to Part II 977.1 Objectives of Part II? 977.2 Overview 98Chapter 8: Emergence 1018.1 Introduction and Objectives 1018.2 A Model with Less-Emergent Dynamics 1028.3 Simulation Experiments and BehaviorSpace 1038.4 A Model with Complex Emergent Dynamics 1088.5 Summary and Conclusions 1138.6 Exercises 114Chapter 9: Observation 1159.1 Introduction and Objectives 1159.2 Observing the Model via NetLogo's View 1169.3 Other Interface Displays 1199.4 File Output 1209.5 Behavior Space as an Output Writer 1239.6 Export Primitives and Menu Commands 1249.7 Summary and Conclusions 1249.8 Exercises 125Chapter 10: Sensing 12710.1 Introduction and Objectives 12710.2 Who Knows What: The Scope of Variables 12810.3 Using Variables of Other Objects 13110.4 Putting Sensing to Work: The Business Investor Model 13210.5 Summary and Conclusions 14010.6 Exercises 141Chapter 11: Adaptive Behavior and Objectives 14311.1 Introduction and Objectives 14311.2 Identifying and Optimizing Alternatives in NetLogo 14411.3 Adaptive Behavior in the Business Investor Model 14811.4 Non-optimizing Adaptive Traits: A Satisficing Example 14911.5 The Objective Function 15211.6 Summary and Conclusions 15311.7 Exercises 154Chapter 12: Prediction 15712.1 Introduction and Objectives 15712.2 Example Effects of Prediction: The Business Investor Model's Time Horizon 15812.3 Implementing and Analyzing Submodels 15912.4 Analyzing the Investor Utility Function 16312.5 Modeling Prediction Explicitly 16512.6 Summary and Conclusions 16612.7 Exercises 167Chapter 13: Interaction 16913.1 Introduction and Objectives 16913.2 Programming Interaction in NetLogo 17013.3 The Telemarketer Model 17113.4 The March of Progress: Global Interaction 17513.5 Direct Interaction: Mergers in the Telemarketer Model 17613.6 The Customers Fight Back: Remembering Who Called 17913.7 Summary and Conclusions 18113.8 Exercises 181Chapter 14: Scheduling 18314.1 Introduction and Objectives 18314.2 Modeling Time in NetLogo 18414.3 Summary and Conclusions 19214.4 Exercises 193Chapter 15: Stochasticity 19515.1 Introduction and Objectives 19515.2 Stochasticity in ABMs 19615.3 Pseudorandom Number Generation in NetLogo 19815.4 An Example Stochastic Process: Empirical Model of Behavior 20315.5 Summary and Conclusions 20515.6 Exercises 206Chapter 16: Collectives 20916.1 Introduction and Objectives 20916.2 What Are Collectives? 20916.3 Modeling Collectives in NetLogo 21016.4 Example: A Wild Dog Model with Packs 21216.5 Summary and Conclusions 22116.6 Exercises 222Part III: Pattern-Oriented Modeling 225Chapter 17: Introduction to Part III 22717.1 Toward Structurally Realistic Models 22717.2 Single and Multiple, Strong and Weak Patterns 22817.3 Overview of Part III?230Chapter 18: Patterns for Model Structure 23318.1 Introduction 23318.2 Steps in POM to Design Model Structure 23418.3 Example: Modeling European Beech Forests 23518.4 Example: Management Accounting and Collusion 23918.5 Summary and Conclusions 24018.6 Exercises 241Chapter 19: Theory Development 24319.1 Introduction 24319.2 Theory Development and Strong Inference in the Virtual Laboratory 24419.3 Examples of Theory Development for ABMs 24619.4 Exercise Example: Stay or Leave? 24919.5 Summary and Conclusions 25319.6 Exercises 254Chapter 20: Parameterization and Calibration 25520.1 Introduction and Objectives 25520.2 Parameterization of ABMs Is Different 25620.3 Parameterizing Submodels 25720.4 Calibration Concepts and Strategies 25820.5 Example: Calibration of the Woodhoopoe Model 26420.6 Summary and Conclusions 26720.7 Exercises 268Part IV: Model Analysis 271Chapter 21: Introduction to Part IV 27321.1 Objectives of Part IV?27321.2 Overview of Part IV?274Chapter 22: Analyzing and Understanding ABMs 27722.1 Introduction 27722.2 Example Analysis: The Segregation Model 27822.3 Additional Heuristics for Understanding ABMs 28322.4 Statistics for Understanding 28722.5 Summary and Conclusions 28822.6 Exercises 288Chapter 23: Sensitivity, Uncertainty, and Robustness Analysis 29123.1 Introduction and Objectives 29123.2 Sensitivity Analysis 29323.3 Uncertainty Analysis 29723.4 Robustness Analysis 30223.5 Summary and Conclusions 30623.6 Exercises 307Chapter 24: Where to Go from Here 30924.1 Introduction 30924.2 Keeping Your Momentum: Reimplementation 31024.3 Your First Model from Scratch 31024.4 Modeling Agent Behavior 31124.5 ABM Gadgets 31224.6 Coping with NetLogo's Limitations 31324.7 Beyond NetLogo 31524.8 An Odd Farewell 316References 317Index 323Index of Programming Notes 329