An Introduction to Intelligence Research and Analysis : Security and Professional Intelligence Education Series - Jerome Clauser

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An Introduction to Intelligence Research and Analysis

By: Jerome Clauser, Jan, Ph.D. Goldman (Editor)

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Paperback | 17 October 2008

At a Glance

Paperback
234 Pages

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22.7 x 15.3 x 1.7

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Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on United States soil, the intelligence community has been scrutinized on how it performs its functions. Consequently, the 9/11 Commission made several recommendations on how to improve the quality of intelligence analysis. Those charges and the United States'' involvement in a war in Iraq have spawned additional charges of the politicization of intelligence. All this is being played out as the Intelligence Community has reformed and reconfigured itself with newly created departments supported by an expanded and inexperienced workforce that was never envisioned when the intelligence community was formally established in 1947. First published in the 1970s, the classic book An Introduction to Intelligence Research and Analysis was used by intelligence analysts to track and monitor the Communist threat. Although today''s environment has changed considerably since the Cold War, intelligence analysts still need to understand the basics of intelligence analysis. The book focuses on how to do research, what qualities are needed to be an intelligence analyst, and what methods can be employed to help in producing products. To avoid politicization, intelligence analysts should strive to become more transparent in their methodology of how they arrived at their conclusions. Intelligence Research and Analysis provides several methods to assist in that end.

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Non-Fiction Politics & Government Political Control & Freedoms Psychology Cognition & Cognitive Psychology Intelligence & Reasoning Reference, Information & Interdisciplinary Subjects Research & Information Research Methods Data Analysis Political Activism Terrorism

International Relations

Introduction	p. xi
The Evolution and Definition of Strategic Intelligence	p. 1
Organized Warfare and the Need for Strategic Intelligence	p. 1
Sun Tzu: First among Few Writers of a Very Old Profession	p. 2
Systematic Strategic Intelligence Production Ignored: Some Hypotheses	p. 4
Precursors to the "Modem Era" in Strategic Intelligence Production	p. 6
U.S. Intelligence Organizations: Newcomers to an Old Club	p. 7
Problematic Information and the Need for Intelligence	p. 9
Purpose of Intelligence	p. 10
Forms and Components of Strategic Intelligence	p. 11
Summary	p. 14
Research: A Description of the Activity and the Analyst	p. 17
Original Meaning and Modern Permutations	p. 17
Research as a Purposeful Activity	p. 19
Research as a Systematic Activity	p. 20
Research as an Activity That Contributes New Knowledge	p. 21
Intelligence Research/Academic Research: Similarities and Differences	p. 21
Time Constraints	p. 22
Control of Variables	p. 23
Adequacy of Data versus the Necessity of Reporting	p. 23
Unknown Quality of Data	p. 24
Emphasis on Prediction	p. 24
Emphasis on Security	p. 25
Utility	p. 26
Characteristics of the Intelligence Researcher	p. 27
Reasoning Ability	p. 28
Accuracy	p. 29
Intellectual Honesty	p. 30
Open-Mindedness	p. 30
Skepticism	p. 31
Detachment	p. 32
Patience, Diligence, and Perseverance	p. 32
Imagination	p. 33
Summary	p. 35
Types of Inquiry and the Nature of Proof	p. 38
Descriptive Research	p. 39
Nature of Proof in Descriptive Research	p. 40
Nature of Proof in Predictive Research	p. 41
Theory Validation in a Conflict Situation	p. 42
Models and the Scientific Method	p. 43
The Scientific Method in Nonscientific Research	p. 45
Predictive Model Validation in Intelligence Research	p. 46
Semantic Problems of Technical Terms	p. 48
Summary	p. 48
The Relation of Induction and Deduction to Theory Building in Intelligence Research	p. 51
Defining Induction	p. 52
Defining Deduction	p. 54
Induction and Deduction in the Hypothetico-Deductive Process	p. 55
Summary	p. 56
Planning the Research Program: Problem Definition	p. 58
Defining the Problem: Sources and Origins of Research Projects	p. 59
Is There a Need?	p. 60
Defining Boundaries: A Scope	p. 60
Terms of Reference	p. 61
Operational Definitions	p. 62
Broad Topics or Limited Topics: Determining the Feasibility of the Approach	p. 63
Testing the Limits of Time	p. 63
Capabilities and Interests of the Researcher	p. 64
Feasibility: The All-Inclusive Issue	p. 65
Problem Definition: The First but Not Final Phase of the Planning Activity	p. 66
Summary	p. 67
Planning the Research Program: Locating Information	p. 69
Primary and Secondary Sources	p. 69
Intenational and Unintentional Transmitters of Facts	p. 70
Data Sources and Potential for Bias	p. 71
Sources of Research Data: People, Objects, Emanations, and Records	p. 73
People	p. 73
Objects	p. 74
Emanations	p. 75
Records	p. 76
Summary	p. 77
Foundations of Analysis: Some Basic Concepts	p. 79
Analysis	p. 80
Induction and Deduction: A Short Review	p. 80
Seven General Rules for Verification	p. 81
Causality and Correlation	p. 83
Canons of Causality	p. 84
"Quantitative" and "Qualitative" Analysis: A Nebulous Distinction	p. 88
Summary	p. 90
Classification: A Basic Step in Analysis	p. 93
Classification in Science and Intelligence	p. 93
Why Classify?	p. 95
Coding: A Basic Type of Classification	p. 97
Two Meanings of Classify	p. 99
The Steps in Classification	p. 100
Testing the Classification System	p. 102
Classifications as Abstracts of Reality with Parts Deleted	p. 103
Summary	p. 103
Basic Quantitative Techniques for Research and Analysis	p. 105
Statistical Analysis	p. 106
Mathematical Analysis	p. 107
Descriptive Statistics	p. 108
Frequency Distributions	p. 108
Measures of Central Tendency	p. 110
Measures of Dispersion	p. 111
An Example of the Use of Descriptive Statistics	p. 115
Sampling Theory	p. 117
Random Sampling	p. 117
Stratified Sampling	p. 120
Introduction to Probability	p. 122
Probability Distributions	p. 123
Normal Distribution	p. 124
Binomial Distribution	p. 125
Exponential Distribution	p. 126
Summary	p. 127
Descriptive Analysis Methodologies	p. 129
Analogy: The Perennial Analytic Model	p. 130
Link Analysis	p. 132
Sociometry	p. 134
Game Theory	p. 136
War Gaming	p. 140
Linear Programming	p. 143
Regression and Correlation	p. 147
Graphic Depictions as Aids to Analysis	p. 153
Utility Curves	p. 153
Bar Graphs for Comparison	p. 155
Terrain Profiling	p. 158
Trend Analysis	p. 160
Summary	p. 162
Prediction, Forecasting, and Haruspicy	p. 164
Types of Phenomena and Their Relationship to Forecasting	p. 164
Probabilistic Statements and Their Relationship to Types of Phenomena	p. 165
Assumptions-Pragmatic and Problematic	p. 166
Delphi Techniques	p. 168
Generation of Alternative Futures	p. 170
Extrapolation	p. 171
Bayesian Analysis	p. 176
Probability Diagrams	p. 180
Psychohistorical and Psycholinguistic Analysis	p. 183
Morphological Analysis	p. 185
Models and Model Building	p. 188
Cybernetic Models and System Dynamics as Aids in Forecasting	p. 190
Summary	p. 193
Preparing the Report	p. 197
Format	p. 197
Use Outlines Appropriately	p. 199
Schedule Work Sessions	p. 200
Avoid Interruptions	p. 200
Use the Active Rather Than Passive Voice	p. 201
Use Simple Sentences	p. 201
Write at a Level Appropriate for the Readers	p. 202
Footnotes and Bibliographies	p. 202
Review and Revision	p. 203
Summary	p. 205
An Example of a Small-Scale Intelligence Study	p. 207
Background and Origin of the Problem	p. 207
Planning the Research Program: Problem Definition	p. 208
Hypothesis Formulation	p. 210
Data Collection	p. 211
Analysis and Findings	p. 211
Validation	p. 215
Index	p. 217
About the Author and Editor	p. 219
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

An Introduction to Intelligence Research and Analysis

At a Glance

Paperback

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