An Introduction to R | p. 1 |
Overview | p. 1 |
Exploring a Student Dataset | p. 1 |
Introduction to the Dataset | p. 1 |
Reading the Data into R | p. 2 |
R Commands to Summarize and Graph a Single Batch | p. 2 |
R Commands to Compare Batches | p. 5 |
R Commands for Studying Relationships | p. 6 |
Exploring the Robustness of the t Statistic | p. 8 |
Introduction | p. 8 |
Writing a Function to Compute the t Statistic | p. 9 |
Programming a Monte Carlo Simulation | p. 10 |
The Behavior of the True Significance Level Under Different Assumptions | p. 11 |
Further Reading | p. 13 |
Summary of R Functions | p. 14 |
Exercises | p. 15 |
Introduction to Bayesian Thinking | p. 19 |
Introduction | p. 19 |
Learning About the Proportion of Heavy Sleepers | p. 19 |
Using a Discrete Prior | p. 20 |
Using a Beta Prior | p. 22 |
Using a Histogram Prior | p. 26 |
Prediction | p. 28 |
Further Reading | p. 34 |
Summary of R Functions | p. 34 |
Exercises | p. 35 |
Single-Parameter Models | p. 39 |
Introduction | p. 39 |
Normal Distribution with Known Mean but Unknown Variance | p. 39 |
Estimating a Heart Transplant Mortality Rate | p. 41 |
An Illustration of Bayesian Robustness | p. 44 |
Mixtures of Conjugate Priors | p. 49 |
A Bayesian Test of the Fairness of a Coin | p. 52 |
Further Reading | p. 57 |
Summary of R Functions | p. 57 |
Exercises | p. 58 |
Multiparameter Models | p. 63 |
Introduction | p. 63 |
Normal Data with Both Parameters Unknown | p. 63 |
A Multinomial Model | p. 66 |
A Bioassay Experiment | p. 69 |
Comparing Two Proportions | p. 75 |
Further Reading | p. 80 |
Summary of R Functions | p. 80 |
Exercises | p. 81 |
Introduction to Bayesian Computation | p. 87 |
Introduction | p. 87 |
Computing Integrals | p. 88 |
Setting Up a Problem in R | p. 89 |
A Beta-Binomial Model for Overdispersion | p. 90 |
Approximations Based on Posterior Modes | p. 94 |
The Example | p. 95 |
Monte Carlo Method for Computing Integrals | p. 97 |
Rejection Sampling | p. 98 |
Importance Sampling | p. 101 |
Introduction | p. 101 |
Using a Multivariate t as a Proposal Density | p. 103 |
Sampling Importance Resampling | p. 105 |
Further Reading | p. 105 |
Summary of R Functions | p. 109 |
Exercises | p. 110 |
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods | p. 117 |
Introduction | p. 117 |
Introduction to discrete Markov Chains | p. 117 |
Metropolis-Hastings Algorithms | p. 120 |
Gibbs Sampling | p. 122 |
MCMC Output Analysis | p. 122 |
A Strategy in Bayesian Computing | p. 124 |
Learning About a Normal Population from Grouped Data | p. 124 |
Example of Output Analysis | p. 129 |
Modeling Data with Cauchy Errors | p. 131 |
Analysis of the Stanford Heart Transplant Data | p. 140 |
Further Reading | p. 145 |
Summary of R Functions | p. 146 |
Exercises | p. 147 |
Hierarchical Modeling | p. 153 |
Introduction | p. 153 |
Three Examples | p. 153 |
Individual and Combined Estimates | p. 155 |
Equal Mortality Rates? | p. 157 |
Modeling a Prior Belief of Exchangeability | p. 161 |
Posterior Distribution | p. 163 |
Simulating from the Posterior | p. 163 |
Posterior Inferences | p. 168 |
Shrinkage | p. 168 |
Comparing Hospitals | p. 169 |
Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis | p. 171 |
Posterior Predictive Model Checking | p. 173 |
Further Reading | p. 175 |
Summary of R Functions | p. 175 |
Exercises | p. 176 |
Model Comparison | p. 181 |
Introduction | p. 181 |
Comparison of Hypotheses | p. 181 |
A One-Sided Test of a Normal Mean | p. 182 |
A Two-Sided Test of a Normal Mean | p. 185 |
Comparing Two Models | p. 186 |
Models for Soccer Goals | p. 187 |
Is a Baseball Hitter Really Streaky? | p. 190 |
A Test of Independence in a Two-Way Contingency Table | p. 194 |
Further Reading | p. 199 |
Summary of R Functions | p. 199 |
Exercises | p. 201 |
Regression Models | p. 205 |
Introduction | p. 205 |
Normal Linear Regression | p. 205 |
The Model | p. 205 |
The Posterior Distribution | p. 206 |
Prediction of Future Observations | p. 206 |
Computation | p. 207 |
Model Checking | p. 207 |
An Example | p. 208 |
Model Selection Using Zellner's Prior | p. 217 |
Survival Modeling | p. 222 |
Further Reading | p. 227 |
Summary of R Functions | p. 227 |
Exercises | p. 229 |
Gibbs Sampling | p. 235 |
Introduction | p. 235 |
Robust Modeling | p. 236 |
Binary Response Regression with a Probit Link | p. 240 |
Missing Data and Gibbs Sampling | p. 240 |
Proper Priors and Model Selection | p. 243 |
Estimating a Table of Means | p. 248 |
Introduction | p. 248 |
A Flat Prior Over the Restricted Space | p. 250 |
A Hierarchical Regression Prior | p. 254 |
Predicting the Success of Future Students | p. 259 |
Further Reading | p. 260 |
Summary of R Functions | p. 260 |
Exercises | p. 261 |
Using R to Interface with WinBUGS | p. 265 |
Introduction to WinBUGS | p. 265 |
An R Interface to WinBUGS | p. 266 |
MCMC Diagnostics Using the coda Package | p. 267 |
A Change-Point Model | p. 268 |
A Robust Regression Model | p. 272 |
Estimating Career Trajectories | p. 276 |
Further Reading | p. 281 |
Exercises | p. 282 |
References | p. 287 |
Index | p. 293 |
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