Being Right or Making Money

Foreword xi

Preface xv

Acknowledgments xvii

Chapter 1 Being Right or Making Money 1
Ned Davis

Bad News about Forecasting (Being Right) 1

Good News about Making Money 5

Being Right and Other Investment Techniques Are Overrated and Are Not the Keys to Success 6

The Four Real Keys to Making Money 7

The Battle for Investment Survival and Handling Mistakes 12

Stories of Five Successful Winners 14

Making Our Own Reality 19

The Ned Davis Research Response to All This 22

Timing Models 23

What Is Contrary Opinion and How to Use It 29

History and Risk Management 32

The Rest of the Book 36

Notes 39

Chapter 2 The ModelâBuilding Process 41
Ned Davis

The ModelâBuilding Process 41

Where to Start: Model Inputs 41

Sentiment and Valuation Indicators 42

Monetary Indicators 43

Economic Indicators 47

Internal Indicators 47

Moving Averages 48

Crossings and Slopes 49

Momentum 54

Putting Indicators Together 55

Conclusion 57

Chapter 3 A Stock Market Model 59
Loren Flath

A Stock Market Model 59

Overview of the Fab Five 63

Tape Component 64

The Final Tape Component 73

The Sentiment Component 74

Sentiment Summary 87

The Monetary Model 87

Monetary Component Summary 96

Fab Five Combo Component 97

Combo Model Summary 103

Summing Up the Fab Five 104

How We Use the Fab Five 104

Chapter 4 A Simple Model for Bonds 105
Loren Flath

A Slight Modification 109

Summary 113

Chapter 5 Potential Bear Market in 2014; Bearish Secular Residue and Then Buying Opportunity 115
Ned Davis

Preparing for a (Say, 20 Percent) Bear Market 115

Sentiment and Valuation Indicators, If One Wanted to Be Bearish 115

Other Sentiment Indicators 120

Valuation Problems 124

Trend Indicators to Plan for a Potential Pullbackâ"Follow the Leaders 130

More Leading Indicators of Market Peaks 132

FourâYear Presidential Cycle Risks 136

Macro Backdrop: Debt Bubble Update 139

Watching Fed Policy to Prepare for a Major Pullback in 2014 147

What Do Demographics Say? 151

Chapter 6 The Aging World: Economic and Market Implications 155
Alejandra Grindal

Global Population View 155

Why Is the Population Getting Older? 159

Demographic Developments 161

Implications of Aging Populations 165

Ways to Offset a Declining Workforce 172

Conclusion 177

Chapter 7 United States Energy Independence â"A Game-Changer 179
John LaForge

What the United States Consumes 181

The Thorn in the Side of Energy Independenceâ"Oil and Transportation 183

Choosing the Right Fuel 195

Why Electric Could Be a Game-Changer 198

Why Electric Has Yet to Take Off 199

How Far Ned Could Go 200

Nat Gasâ"An Indirect Play on Electric 202

The Immediate Impact of Abundant U.S. Energy Resources 209

A Potential Headache for the U.S. Manufacturing Resurgence 212

Conclusion 215

About the Authors 217

About the Contributors 219

Index 223