Coping with Uncertainty

Modeling and Policy Issues

By: Kurt Marti (Editor), Yuri Ermoliev (Editor), Marek Makowski (Editor)

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Paperback | 21 September 2006

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348 Pages

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23.39 x 15.6 x 1.83

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Ongoing global changes bring fundamentally new scientific problems requiring new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of practically irreducible uncertainties, which challenge our traditional models and require new concepts and analytical tools. The uncertainty critically dominantes, e.g., the climate change debates. In short, the dilemma is concerned with enormous costs vs. massive uncertainties of potential extreme impacts. Traditional scientific approaches usually rely on real observations and experiments. Yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and "pure" experiments and learning by doing may be very expensive, dangerous, or simply impossible. In addition, available historical observations are contaminated by actions, policies. The complexity of new problems does not allow to achieve enough certainty by increasing the resolution of models or by bringing in more links. Hence, new tools for modeling and management of uncertainty are needed, as given in this book.

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Uncertainty and Decisions: Facets of Robust Decisions
Stress Testing via Contamination
Structured Modeling for Coping with Uncertainty in Complex Problems
Modeling Stochastic Uncertainty
Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Treat Physical Uncertainties in Structural Reliability
Explicit Methods for the Computation of Strucutral Reliabilities in Stochastic Plastic Analysis
Statistical Analysis of Catastrophie Events
Scene Interpretation Using Bayesian Network Fragments
Non-probabilistic Uncertainty: General Equilibrium Models with Discrete Choices in a Spatial Continuum
Sequential Downscaling Methods for Estimation from Aggregate Data
Optimal Control for a Class of Uncertain Systems
Uncertainties in Medical Processes Control
Applications of Stochastic Optimization
Impacts of Uncertainty and Increasing Returns on Sustainable Energy Development and Climate Change
A Stochastic Optimization Appraoch
Stochasticity in Electric Energy Systems Planning
Stochastic Programming Based PERT Modeling
Towards Implementable Nonlinear Stochastic Programming
Policy Issues Under Uncertainty: Endogenous Risks and Learning
Pricing Related Projects
Precaution. The Willingness to Accept Costs to Avert Uncertain Danger
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.

Coping with Uncertainty

Modeling and Policy Issues

At a Glance

Paperback

Shipping

How to return your order

Defective items

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