A history of winning intelligence practices from the Spanish Armada to Cyberwar that offers timeless, practical lessons we ignore at our peril.
According to conventional wisdom, strategic surprise and other intelligence failures are both inevitable and ultimately irrelevant because, at least in international politics and war, military muscle matters more than brains.
In Decision Advantage, Jennifer E. Sims counters this argument by investigating the history of intelligence through centuries of international conflict, including the 16th Century's Spanish Armada, two US Civil War battles, the hunt for President Lincoln's assassin, and key diplomatic crises before the two World Wars. Sims dives deep into these events to show that the competitive pursuit of intelligence advantage has been a measurable, buildable, and consequential form of power that can help competitors win against otherwise stronger opponents. From these observations, the author develops a general guide to building intelligence readiness, whether for war, diplomacy, or international manhunts.
Refuting arguments that intelligence is a sideshow because intentions are unknowable and predictions risky, she redefines success as gaining information advantages over an adversary, prescribes four practical pathways for gaining them, and confirms what seems to be simple common sense: smart competitors know how to learn, and the ones who learn best tend to win. Thinking of intelligence in this way, Sims argues, adds a moral character to an enterprise that is too often mired in excessive secrecy and tyrannical agendas. By "lifting the veil" on international politics, Decision Advantage shows how good intelligence can lessen the likelihood of wars of misperception and folly.
Industry Reviews
"This lengthy work gives readers a great deal to ponder, particularly Sims's illustration of the critical roles that intelligence gathering and analysis play in determining the course of conflict, invisible though they often are." -- Choice
"In a real tour de force, Jennifer Sims develops and deploys a broadened concept of intelligence to show how it can lead to a decision advantage that affects the course of history. The cases studied are unusual and extraordinarily well done. This important book is a pleasure to read and deserves a wide audience." -Robert Jervis, author of Why Intelligence Fails
"Jennifer Sims takes the reader on a fascinating tour of intelligence failures and successes from the Spanish Armada to today's post-911 world. Her rigorous analysis reminds us that intelligence in war does not need to be perfect; it just needs to be better than the intelligence on the enemy's side." -Scott D. Sagan, Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, Stanford University
"The concept 'decision advantage' is central to the mission of U.S. intelligence--providing policy makers with intelligence to give them an information advantage over other international actors. Indeed, the term 'decision advantage' figures prominently in a display in the offices of the Director of National Intelligence. Jennifer Sims, a long time intelligence veteran, is properly credited with originating the concept and its definition. She has now taken this
concept and examined how it worked across a range of historic policy dilemmas, from the threat posed to England by the Spanish Armada to the current issue of cyberspace. Dr. Sims has produced a
thoughtful and provocative study that bridges intelligence theory and intelligence history." -Mark M. Lowenthal, Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis & Production (2002-05), and author of Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy
"Sims has produced a thought-provoking book that seeks to bridge intelligence theory and history. The case-studies are engaging and full of detail on the influence of intelligence on military and diplomatic competition, which will be of interest to a broad audience...Sims's book should be read widely." -- Dan Lomas, International Affairs
"Jennifer E. Sims's Decision Advantage is an examination of how intelligence has influenced select decision-makers, through three broad periods in history, culminating in a proposed theory of intelligence in international politics...as a historical study of intelligence, the book excels." -- Robin Kemp, H-Net
"In Decision Advantage, Jennifer E. Sims seeks to correct both popular misconceptions of how espionage operates and rebut the views of those who dismiss its importance in international politics." -- Mitchell B. Reiss, Intelligence, Strategy and Governance in the Twenty-first Century
