Energy 2000-2020

1 Presentation and Analysis of Results.- 1 Situation of the Study.- 1.1 Historical Introduction.- 1.2 Specificity.- 1.3 The Objective of the Study.- 1.3.1 Formulation of the objective.- 1.3.2 Forecasting procedure.- 1.3.3 Means.- 1.4 Preliminary Remarks.- 1.5 Instructions for Use.- II Global Equilibrium and North-South Dynamics.- 2.1 The Fundamental Factors: Demography and Economic Growth.- 2.1.1 Demography.- 2.1.2 Economic growth.- 2.2 World Energy Consumption.- 2.2.1 Consumption totals and consumption per capita.- 2.2.2 The dynamics of North-South consumption.- 2.2.3 Commercial and non-commercial 16 consumptions.- 2.3 Evolution of Supplies.- 2.3.1 World equilibrium.- 2.3.2 The industrialised nations.- 2.3.3 The Third World.- 2.4 World Energy Production.- 2.4.1 Total production.- 2.4.2 North-South production structures.- 2.5 Interregional Trade at a Global Level.- 2.5.1 The world market.- 2.5.2 The trade in fuels.- III Evolution of Regional Energy Balances.- 3.1 North America.- 3.1.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.1.2 Energy consumption.- 3.1.3 Supply pattern.- 3.1.4 Energy production.- 3.1.5 Interregional energy trade.- 3.2 Western Europe.- 3.2.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.2.2 Energy consumption.- 3.2.3 Supply pattern.- 3.2.4 Energy production.- 3.2.5 Interregional energy trade.- 3.3 Industrialised Countries of the Pacific.- 3.3.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.3.2 Energy consumption.- 3.3.3 Supply pattern.- 3.3.4 Energy production.- 3.3.5 Interregional energy trade.- 3.4 Eastern Europe.- 3.4.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.4.2 Energy consumption.- 3.4.3 Supply pattern.- 3.4.4 Energy production.- 3.4.5 Interregional energy trade.- 3.5 North Africa and Middle East.- 3.5.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.5.2 Energy consumption.- 3.5.3 Supply pattern.- 3.5.4 Energy production.- 3.5.5 Interregional energy trade.- 3.6 Africa South of the Sahara.- 3.6A Black Africa: Africa South of the Sahara without South Africa.- 3.6.1 A Demographic and economic environment.- 3.6.2A Energy consumption.- 3.6.3A Supply pattern.- 3.6.4A Energy production.- 3.6.5A Interregional energy trade.- 3.6B Africa South of the Sahara.- 3.6.1 B Demographic and economic environment.- 3.6.2B Energy consumption.- 3.6.3B Supply pattern.- 3.6.4B Energy production.- 3.6.5B Interregional energy trade.- 3.7 South Asia.- 3.7.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.7.2 Energy consumption.- 3.7.3 Supply pattern.- 3.7.4 Energy production.- 3.7.5 Interregional energy trade.- 3.8 South-East Asia.- 3.8.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.8.2 Energy consumption.- 3.8.3 Supply pattern.- 3.8.4 Energy production.- 3.8.5 Interregional energy trade.- 3.9 Centrally Planned Asian Countries.- 3.9.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.9.2 Energy consumption.- 3.9.3 Supply pattern.- 3.9.4 Energy production.- 3.9.5 Interregional energy trade.- 3.10 Latin America.- 3.10.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.10.2 Energy consumption.- 3.10.3 Supply pattern.- 3.10.4 Energy production.- 3.10.5 Interregional energy trade.- IV General Guidelines.- 4.1 Overall Energy Context and Long-term Perspectives.- 4.2 The Readaptation of the World Energy System.- 4.3 The Essential Regional Questions.- 4.4 Differentiated Evolutions of the Regions.- 4.5 Towards a Tripolar World.- 4.6 The Energy Future in Perspective.- II Methodology.- V Methodology.- 5.1 Regionalisation.- 5.2 Period of Reference.- 5.3 The Forecasting Horizon.- 5.4 Field of Study.- 5.5 Forecasting Method.- 5.6 Forecasting Scenarios.- 5.7 Units and Equivalences.- III Annexes.- Annex 1 Composition of the Regions.- Annex 2 Composition of the Regional Working teams (RWT).- Annex 3 Meetings of the Regional Working Teams.- Annex 4 Units - Equivalences.- Annex 5 Reference Base 1960-1978.- Annex 6 Demographic Forecasts.- Annex 7 Economic Forecasts.- Annex 8 Regional File.- Annex 9 First Stage of Energy Forecasts (Centralised Stage).- Annex 10 Final stage of Energy Forecasts (Decentralised Stage).- Annex 11 Energy Consumptions Forecasts.- Annex 12 Energy Production Forecasts.- Annex 13 Energy Exchanges Forecasts.- Annex 14 Balance Factor.- Annexes 15-19 Regional Structures: Energy Dependences-Elasticities-lntensities.- Annex 20 Analysis of Differences Between the Two Stages of the Study.- Annex 21 Comparison of the "Munich" and "New Delhi" Studies.- Annex 22 Annual World and Cumulative 1978-2000-2020 Consumptions.- Annex 23 Reserves of Non-renewable Energy Sources.- Annex 24 Bibliography.- Annex 25 Minutes of Round Table No. 5 Energy 2000-2020: Supply, Demand and Regional Stresses.