Preface | |
Modelling and Software as Instruments for Advancing Sustainability | |
Summary | |
Introduction | |
Aims of the Summit | |
The role of modelling and software | |
Common problems in modelling | |
Current state of the art and future challenges in modelling | |
Generic issues | |
Sectoral issues | |
Conclusions References | |
Good Modelling Practice | |
Summary | |
Introduction | |
Key components of good modelling practice | |
Model purpose | |
Model evaluation | |
Performance measures | |
Stating and testing model assumptions | |
Ongoing model testing and evaluation | |
Model transparency and dissemination | |
Terminology | |
Reporting | |
Model dissemination | |
A definition of good modelling practice | |
Progress towards good modelling practice | |
Recommendations | |
References. | |
Bridging the Gaps between Design and Use: Developing Tools to Support Environmental Management and Policy | |
Summary | |
A gap between design and use? | |
Decision and information support tool review | |
Supporting organisational decision making | |
Supporting participatory and collaborative decision making | |
The nature and extent of the gap | |
Good practice guidelines for involving users in development | |
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Conclusions | |
References | |
Complexity and Uncertainty: Rethinking the Modelling Activity | |
Summary | |
Introduction | |
Uncertainty: causes and manifestations | |
Causes of uncertainty | |
Manifestation of uncertainty | |
A conceptual approach to deal with uncertainty and complexity in modelling | |
Prediction | |
Exploratory analysis | |
Communication | |
Learning | |
Examples | |
Prediction: model use in the development of the US clean air mercury rule | |
Exploratory analysis: microeconomic modelling of land use change in a coastal zone area | |
Communication: modelling water quality at different scales and different levels of complexity | |
Learning: modelling for strategic river planning in the Maas, the Netherlands | |
Conclusions | |
Models for prediction purposes | |
Models for exploratory purposes | |
Models for communication purposes | |
Models for learning purposes | |
References | |
Uncertainty in Environmental Decision Making: Issues, Challenges and Future Directions | |
Summary | |
Introduction | |
Environmental Decision-Making Process | |
Sources of Uncertainty | |
Progress, Challenges and Future Directions | |
Risk-based assessment criteria | |
Uncertainty in human input | |
Computational efficiency | |
Integrated software frameworks for decision making under uncertainty | |
Conclusions | |
References | |
Environmental Policy Aid under Uncertainty | |
Summary | |
Introduction | |
Factors influencing perceptions of uncertainty | |
Uncertainty in decision models | |
Uncertainty in practical policy making | |
Reducing uncertainty through innovative policy interventions | |
Discussion and conclusions | |
References | |
Integrated Modelling Frameworks for Environmental Assessment and Decision Support | |
Summary | |
Introduction | |
A first definition | |
Why do we develop new frameworks? | |
A more insightful definition | |
A generic architecture for EIMFs | |
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Knowledge representation and management | |
Challenges for knowledge-based environmental modelling | |
Model Engineering | |
Component-based modelling | |
Distributed modelling | |
Driving and supporting the modelling process | |
The experimental frame | |
Conclusions | |
References | |
I | |
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