Background | |
Introduction | p. 3 |
Famine Early Warning in a Modern Age | p. 6 |
Lives and Livelihoods | p. 9 |
What is Remote Sensing? | p. 11 |
FEWS NET as an Multi-Disciplinary Project | p. 13 |
Summary of Chapters | p. 14 |
Remote Sensing for Early Warning | p. 15 |
Food Security Analysis | p. 17 |
Case Studies | p. 18 |
Looking to the Future | p. 20 |
References | p. 20 |
Conceptual Frameworks | p. 23 |
The Process of Early Warning | p. 25 |
Concepts of Food Security | p. 26 |
Agroecosystems and Food Security | p. 29 |
African Agroecosystems | p. 30 |
Early Warning of Food Insecurity | p. 32 |
Humanitarian Response to Early Warning | p. 34 |
Challenges and Opportunities for FEWS NET | p. 36 |
Summary | p. 37 |
References | p. 38 |
FEWS NET's Structure and Remote Sensing | p. 41 |
FEWS NET Implementation | p. 42 |
FEWS NET Field Offices | p. 43 |
Food Security Status Alerts | p. 47 |
FEWS NET Livelihood Monitoring and Assessment | p. 48 |
Socio-Economic Monitoring | p. 49 |
Biophysical and Socio-Economic Data for Analysis | p. 52 |
Weather Hazard Assessments | p. 52 |
Challenges for FEWS NET | p. 59 |
Summary | p. 60 |
References | p. 60 |
Remote Sensing for Early Warning | |
Rainfall Estimates | p. 65 |
NOAA's Rainfall Estimate (RFE) Product | p. 65 |
Global Telecommunications System Gauge Data | p. 69 |
Satellite Data Input and Algorithm for the RFE | p. 72 |
Rainfall Estimate Algorithm | p. 75 |
African Rainfall Climatology (ARC) Data | p. 75 |
The CHARM Dataset | p. 77 |
Rainfall Datasets in Regions Outside of Africa | p. 78 |
Challenges in Rainfall Monitoring | p. 79 |
Summary | p. 79 |
References | p. 80 |
Derived Agricultural and Climate Monitoring Products | p. 83 |
Climate Diagnostics | p. 83 |
Agricultural Season Monitoring Products | p. 87 |
Start of Season Data | p. 87 |
Flooding and Runoff Models Driven by RFE Data | p. 88 |
Standardized Precipitation Index | p. 89 |
Crop Models Driven by Rainfall Data | p. 90 |
Soil Moisture Indices | p. 92 |
Limitations of Production Estimates Based on Rainfall | p. 93 |
Summary | p. 95 |
References | p. 95 |
Vegetation Index Measurements | p. 97 |
What is NDVI? | p. 98 |
What does NDVI Measure? | p. 100 |
NDVI Composites and Time Series Construction | p. 101 |
NDVI Time Series Data for Agriculture Monitoring | p. 103 |
Comparison Between NDVI Datasets | p. 104 |
NDVI for Monitoring Forage Conditions | p. 109 |
Desert Locust Monitoring | p. 110 |
MODIS Snow Product for Afghanistan | p. 111 |
High Resolution Spectral Vegetation Data for Cropped Area Estimates | p. 113 |
Summary | p. 116 |
References | p. 116 |
Climate Forecasts | p. 119 |
Numerical Climate Forecasts | p. 119 |
1-4 and 5-7 Day Forecasts | p. 120 |
One and Four Month Canonical Correlation Analysis Climate Model | p. 121 |
Seasonal Forecasts from Other Organizations | p. 124 |
Interpreting Probabilistic Forecasts | p. 125 |
NDVI and Rainfall Projections | p. 127 |
NDVI Projections | p. 128 |
Rainfall Projections | p. 130 |
Summary | p. 131 |
References | p. 131 |
Food Security Analysis | |
FEWS NET's Integrated Analytical Areas | p. 135 |
Analysis of Entitlement Decline | p. 137 |
FEWS NET and Livelihoods | p. 138 |
Markets and Trade | p. 141 |
Climate | p. 144 |
Crop Production | p. 145 |
Livestock | p. 146 |
Example of Pastoral Crisis Caused by Variable Rainfall: Kenya | p. 146 |
Conflict/Security | p. 148 |
Health and Nutrition | p. 148 |
Nutrition and Food Consumption | p. 149 |
Nutrition and Disease | p. 150 |
Example of Nutrition Surveillance and Monitoring in Kenya | p. 152 |
Water and Sanitation | p. 153 |
Challenges for FEWS NET | p. 153 |
Summary | p. 154 |
References | p. 155 |
Dynamic Communication and Decision Support | p. 157 |
Decisions and Decision Makers | p. 158 |
Nutritional Assessments | p. 161 |
FEWS NET Products | p. 163 |
Elements in Monthly Country Reports | p. 165 |
Alert Levels | p. 166 |
Executive Briefings | p. 166 |
Cross Border Trade in Southern Africa | p. 168 |
Other Reports | p. 168 |
Decision Support Through Networking | p. 169 |
Challenges for FEWS NET in Decision Support | p. 171 |
Summary | p. 171 |
References | p. 172 |
Use of Remote Sensing in FEWS NET Country and Regional Offices | p. 173 |
Building Capacity | p. 175 |
Remote Sensing Data and Local Food Security Specialists | p. 176 |
Integrative Activities at the Local Level | p. 178 |
Climate Outlook Forum | p. 178 |
Improvement of Local Rainfall Data | p. 181 |
Crop and Rangeland Monitoring with Local WRSI | p. 182 |
Validation of WRSI Product | p. 183 |
Improved Accessibility of Geospatial Biophysical and Socio-Economic Datasets | p. 184 |
Flow of Information from Satellite to Analysis to Decision Maker | p. 185 |
Challenges for FEWS NET | p. 186 |
Summary | p. 186 |
References | p. 187 |
Population Datasets | p. 189 |
Using Population Data to Estimate Food Aid | p. 189 |
Global Population of the World and LandScan Data | p. 191 |
Census Counts | p. 193 |
Other Input Variables | p. 193 |
Census Figures by Administrative Region | p. 194 |
Roads | p. 194 |
Slope | p. 194 |
Land Cover | p. 195 |
Populated Places and Nighttime Lights | p. 196 |
Urban Density Factor | p. 197 |
Coastlines | p. 197 |
LandScan Population Model | p. 198 |
FEWS NET Evaluation of LandScan | p. 198 |
Challenges for FEWS NET and Future Plans | p. 200 |
Summary | p. 201 |
References | p. 201 |
Food Markets and Prices | p. 203 |
Monitoring for Early Warning | p. 204 |
RATIN Analysis for Cross-Border Trade | p. 205 |
RATES Program | p. 206 |
Price Modeling for Earlier Early Warning | p. 207 |
Model Price Inputs | p. 208 |
Satellite Vegetation Data | p. 210 |
Methodology | p. 210 |
Results | p. 213 |
Maps of Prices | p. 214 |
The Meaning of Price Maps | p. 215 |
Role of Trade in Food Provision | p. 216 |
Role of Prices in Southern African Crisis of 2001/2002 | p. 216 |
Challenges for FEWS NET | p. 218 |
Summary | p. 218 |
References | p. 219 |
Scenario Development and Contingency Planning | p. 221 |
Background on Contingency Planning and Scenarios | p. 222 |
Information Requirements for Planners | p. 223 |
Scenarios and Early Warning | p. 224 |
Ethiopia Contingency Planning Scenarios for 2006 | p. 226 |
Best Case Scenario | p. 227 |
Mid-Case Scenario | p. 227 |
Worst Case Scenario | p. 228 |
Food Aid Needs Under Each Scenario | p. 228 |
Agriculture and Livestock | p. 230 |
Climate Data and Contingency Planning | p. 231 |
Challenges for FEWS NET | p. 233 |
Summary | p. 234 |
References | p. 234 |
Case Studies | |
Case Study: Ethiopia and the 2002-2003 Food Security Crisis | p. 239 |
The Food Security Crisis in Ethiopia, 2002-2003 | p. 239 |
Vulnerability to Drought | p. 240 |
Livelihoods Crisis | p. 242 |
Stages of the 2002/03 Crisis | p. 243 |
The Regional Agro-Climatic Situation | p. 243 |
Other Pests and Problems in the Region | p. 246 |
The Food Security Situation | p. 248 |
Cereal Prices and Their Impact | p. 251 |
Drought Tendencies in Ethiopia | p. 252 |
Responding to the New Normal: Relief and Development | p. 253 |
Summary | p. 255 |
References | p. 255 |
Remote Sensing Data in the Mesoamerican Food Security Early Warning System (MFEWS) | p. 257 |
MFEWS and Remote Sensing | p. 258 |
Remote Sensing for Agricultural Monitoring | p. 259 |
Regional Characteristics | p. 260 |
Livelihood Zones | p. 261 |
Maize Production Monitoring with WRSI | p. 262 |
Impact of the Honduras Drought of 2006 | p. 264 |
International Maize Prices | p. 265 |
Resulting Poverty and Food Insecurity in Honduras | p. 266 |
Summary | p. 268 |
References | p. 268 |
Zimbabwe's Crisis of 2006-2007 | p. 269 |
Food Security Situation in Zimbabwe in Early 2007 | p. 270 |
Economic Situation | p. 271 |
Estimating Production from MODIS NDVI | p. 273 |
Vegetation-Sum Metric | p. 274 |
Shifting the NDVI to the Onset of Rains | p. 276 |
Recent Declines in Zimbabwe Production | p. 277 |
The 2006-07 Filled-Season Vegetation-Sum Estimates | p. 278 |
Analysis of Zimbabwe Food Security Situation | p. 279 |
Summary | p. 280 |
References | p. 280 |
Analysis and the Future | |
Power, Politics and Remote Sensing | p. 285 |
Changing Perceptions of Food Security | p. 286 |
Power and Politics in the Use of Remote Sensing | p. 287 |
Zimbabwe | p. 288 |
Politics in Kenya and Remote Sensing | p. 290 |
Trend Analysis in Ethiopia | p. 292 |
Political Challenges for FEWS NET and its Use of Remote Sensing | p. 293 |
Summary | p. 295 |
References | p. 295 |
The Future of FEWS NET | p. 297 |
Anticipating Future Food Security Problems | p. 298 |
Improving Communication Across the Center-Periphery | p. 299 |
Innovations in Reporting | p. 301 |
Remote Sensing Innovation | p. 302 |
Challenges and Opportunities | p. 304 |
P.L. 480 and FEWS NET | p. 305 |
Coping with Climate Change | p. 306 |
Integrating Remote Sensing and Socio-Economic Variables | p. 307 |
Conclusion | p. 307 |
References | p. 308 |
Index | p. 311 |
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