
Introduction to Risk Analysis
A Systematic Approach to Science-Based Decision Making
By:Â Daniel M. Byrd III, Richard C. Cothern
Hardcover | 1 August 2000
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433 Pages
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The authors examine risk and the structure of analysis. Emphasizing the predictive nature of risk, they discuss the quantitative nature of risk and explore quantitative-analysis topics, including data graphing, logarithmic thinking, risk estimating, and curve fitting.
Chapters include discussions on functions, models, and uncertainties; the regulatory process; risk assessment; exposure; dosimetry; epidemiology; toxicology; risk characterization; comparative risk assessment; ecological risk assessment; risk management; and risk communication. Six in-depth case studies, an annotated bibliography, and more than 50 figures are also included.
| List of Figures and Tables | p. xvii |
| Preface | p. xxiii |
| About the Authors | p. xxv |
| Risk Analysis | p. 1 |
| Probability of Future Loss | p. 1 |
| Risk Defined | p. 1 |
| Predictive Nature of Risk | p. 2 |
| Universality of Risk | p. 3 |
| Structure of Risk Analysis | p. 4 |
| Risk Assessment | p. 4 |
| Risk Management | p. 5 |
| Risk Communication | p. 6 |
| Risk Policy | p. 7 |
| Risk Characteristics | p. 8 |
| Precision and Accuracy | p. 8 |
| Safe vs. Risk Free | p. 9 |
| Risk Perception | p. 9 |
| Risk Exposure | p. 10 |
| Communication Problems | p. 12 |
| Units | p. 12 |
| Life Tables | p. 15 |
| Cohort Life Table | p. 16 |
| Current Life Table | p. 17 |
| Life Expectancy | p. 18 |
| Uncertainty | p. 19 |
| Probability Axioms | p. 19 |
| Contrasting Views of Uncertainty as Probability | p. 22 |
| Validation | p. 23 |
| Gold Standards | p. 24 |
| Reproducibility | p. 24 |
| The Meaning of Uncertainty | p. 26 |
| Uncertainty vs. Variability | p. 27 |
| Consequences of Uncertainty | p. 29 |
| Models | p. 29 |
| Uses of Mathematical Models | p. 31 |
| Simulation Models | p. 31 |
| Model Validity | p. 32 |
| Regulations and Regulatory Models | p. 33 |
| Politics of Regulation | p. 33 |
| Responding to Technological Change | p. 34 |
| Process of Risk Analysis | p. 35 |
| The Rest of the Book | p. 36 |
| References | p. 38 |
| Functions, Models, and Uncertainties | p. 41 |
| Qualitative Approaches to Risk | p. 41 |
| Quantitative Approaches to Risk | p. 44 |
| Graphs and Mathematical Models | p. 50 |
| Growth Rate, Doubling Time, and Logarithms | p. 58 |
| Statistics about Pedestrians | p. 60 |
| Probability Distributions | p. 66 |
| Tolerance-Distribution Models | p. 74 |
| Mechanistic Models | p. 83 |
| Uncertainty | p. 87 |
| Subjective Judgment | p. 87 |
| Linguistic Imprecision | p. 88 |
| Statistical Variation | p. 88 |
| Sampling | p. 89 |
| Inherent Randomness | p. 90 |
| Model Uncertainty | p. 90 |
| Causality | p. 90 |
| Lack of Data and Information | p. 91 |
| Problem Formulation | p. 92 |
| Making Estimates | p. 92 |
| Bladder Cancer from Saccharin | p. 93 |
| Penetration of a Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) Facility by a Meteorite | p. 94 |
| References | p. 95 |
| Chapter Appendix | p. 96 |
| Regulation | p. 97 |
| The Regulatory Process | p. 97 |
| Why Have Regulatory Agencies? | p. 100 |
| Food Safety: An Example | p. 101 |
| Ethical Systems and Values | p. 104 |
| The Legislative Component | p. 106 |
| The Administrative Component | p. 107 |
| The Judicial Component | p. 109 |
| Additional Information about Federal Regulation | p. 110 |
| References | p. 112 |
| Exposure Assessment | p. 113 |
| Exposure | p. 113 |
| Planning an Exposure Assessment | p. 120 |
| Purpose of the Exposure Assessment | p. 121 |
| Using Exposure Assessments in Risk Assessment | p. 121 |
| Using Exposure Assessments for Status and Trends | p. 122 |
| Using Exposure Assessments in Epidemiologic Studies | p. 123 |
| Scope of the Assessment | p. 123 |
| Level of Detail of the Assessment | p. 124 |
| Determining the Approach for the Exposure Assessment | p. 124 |
| Establishing the Exposure Assessment Plan | p. 125 |
| Planning an Exposure Assessment as Part of a Risk Assessment | p. 125 |
| Limited vs. Repeated Exposures | p. 126 |
| Dose-Rate Effects | p. 126 |
| Reversibility of Toxicological Processes | p. 126 |
| Composition of the Exposed Population | p. 127 |
| Establishing the Sampling Strategy | p. 127 |
| Data Quality Objectives | p. 127 |
| Sampling Plan | p. 128 |
| Quality Assurance Samples | p. 130 |
| Background Level | p. 130 |
| Quality Assurance and Quality Control | p. 130 |
| Quality Assurance and Quality Control for Previously Generated Data | p. 130 |
| Selection and Validation of Analytical Methods | p. 131 |
| Sources of Exposure | p. 131 |
| Fate and Transport Models | p. 131 |
| Exposure Models | p. 147 |
| Physical Transport in Surface Waters | p. 151 |
| Groundwater | p. 151 |
| Atmosphere | p. 152 |
| Intake Calculations | p. 152 |
| Inhalation | p. 152 |
| Water Ingestion | p. 153 |
| Soil Ingestion | p. 154 |
| Dermal Absorption | p. 155 |
| Dermal Absorption from Water | p. 155 |
| Dermal Exposures from Soil | p. 156 |
| Some Standard Values for Soil Dermal Exposure | p. 157 |
| Example Calculation | p. 157 |
| Food Absorption | p. 157 |
| Example of Food Absorption | p. 158 |
| Multimedia-Multipathway Exposures and Models | p. 159 |
| Most Important Design Elements in Multimedia-Multipathway Studies | p. 162 |
| National Human Exposure Assessment Survey | p. 162 |
| Potential Problems in Multimedia-Multipathway Studies | p. 165 |
| Sources of Additional Information | p. 168 |
| References | p. 168 |
| Risk Assessment: Dosimetry | p. 173 |
| Dose (and some terminology) | p. 173 |
| Dosimetric Measurements | p. 179 |
| Dosimetric Routes | p. 180 |
| Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, and Elimination | p. 182 |
| Pharmacokinetics | p. 184 |
| Physiological Pharmacokinetics | p. 190 |
| Sources of Additional Information about Dosimetry | p. 193 |
| References | p. 194 |
| Epidemiology | p. 197 |
| Introduction to Epidemiology | p. 197 |
| Epidemiological Methods | p. 204 |
| Distributions in Epidemiology | p. 206 |
| Epidemiological Surveys | p. 206 |
| Case Reports, Case Series, and Cross-Sectional Studies | p. 207 |
| Case-Control Studies | p. 208 |
| Cohort Studies | p. 208 |
| Deficiencies of Observational Studies | p. 209 |
| Controlled Studies | p. 209 |
| Hazard and Causation | p. 211 |
| Epidemiology in Transition | p. 216 |
| The Impact of Information Technology | p. 217 |
| The Effect of Specialization | p. 217 |
| The Perspective of Risk | p. 217 |
| Cancer Epidemiology | p. 218 |
| Exposure-Response Relationships in Epidemiology | p. 224 |
| Meta-analysis | p. 227 |
| The Public Health Paradigm | p. 231 |
| Epidemiological Uncertainties | p. 232 |
| Sources of Additional Information about Epidemiology | p. 233 |
| References | p. 235 |
| Toxicology | p. 237 |
| Toxicology | p. 237 |
| Weight of the Evidence in Toxicology | p. 250 |
| Exposure-Response Relationships in Toxicology | p. 251 |
| The Toxicology of Carcinogens | p. 256 |
| Safety Assessment | p. 261 |
| Additional Information about Toxicology | p. 266 |
| References | p. 268 |
| Risk Characterization | p. 271 |
| Bringing Potency and Exposure Estimates Together | p. 271 |
| Exposure-Response Modeling Errors--Trichloroethylene | p. 272 |
| Combining Estimated Error Ranges--Radon from Drinking Water | p. 279 |
| Combining Error Ranges--Monte Carlo Analysis of Trichloroethylene | p. 283 |
| Conclusions | p. 288 |
| References | p. 288 |
| Comparative Risk Analysis | p. 291 |
| Introduction | p. 291 |
| Comparative Environmental Risk Assessments | p. 292 |
| General Comparative Risk Assessments | p. 292 |
| Generation of Electric Power | p. 294 |
| U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Unfinished Business Report | p. 297 |
| Reducing Risk--Report of EPA's Science Advisory Board | p. 299 |
| Disinfection of Drinking Water | p. 300 |
| Hazard Ranking System | p. 301 |
| Problems with Comparative Environmental Risk Assessments | p. 302 |
| Discussion | p. 304 |
| Change the Philosophical Approach? | p. 304 |
| Who Needs to See the "Big Picture"? | p. 306 |
| Observations | p. 307 |
| Summary | p. 308 |
| Conclusions | p. 309 |
| References | p. 309 |
| Ecological Risk Analysis | p. 311 |
| Introduction | p. 311 |
| Laws Requiring Ecological Risk Assessment | p. 311 |
| What Is Ecological Risk Assessment? | p. 313 |
| Ecological Characteristics | p. 314 |
| Ecological Stressors | p. 314 |
| Screening and Testing of Chemicals | p. 315 |
| The Ecological Risk Analysis Process | p. 318 |
| Problem Formulation | p. 322 |
| Analysis | p. 323 |
| Risk Estimation | p. 326 |
| References | p. 327 |
| Risk Management: Values and Decisions | p. 329 |
| Introduction | p. 329 |
| What Do Values and Ethics Have to Do With Risk Management? | p. 329 |
| Values | p. 330 |
| Introduction | p. 330 |
| Values in Toxicology | p. 331 |
| Values in Environmental Risk Decision Making | p. 332 |
| Some Conceptual Decision Models | p. 334 |
| Ideal Model | p. 335 |
| The National Academy of Sciences' "Red Book" Model | p. 335 |
| Cost-Benefit Analysis and Risk-Risk Balancing | p. 336 |
| A Framework Model | p. 337 |
| A Channel Model | p. 338 |
| An Overlay Model | p. 340 |
| Continuous Model | p. 340 |
| The National Academy of Sciences "Orange Book" Model | p. 342 |
| Other National Academy of Sciences Reports about Risk Management | p. 342 |
| The Presidential Risk Assessment and Risk Management Commission Model | p. 342 |
| Unreasonable Risk | p. 344 |
| Risk Magnitude Models | p. 344 |
| Making Regulatory Decisions | p. 345 |
| Costs | p. 351 |
| Conclusions | p. 351 |
| References | p. 353 |
| Risk Communication | p. 357 |
| Introduction to Risk Communication | p. 357 |
| Risk Perception | p. 360 |
| Fulton's List | p. 362 |
| The Seven Cardinal Rules of Risk Communication | p. 363 |
| Other Approaches to Risk Communication | p. 364 |
| Public Interactions | p. 365 |
| Risk Communication Plans | p. 369 |
| Some General Tips | p. 370 |
| Constraints on Risk Communication | p. 371 |
| Communications Media | p. 372 |
| Some Common Traps | p. 372 |
| Summary of Risk Communications | p. 373 |
| References | p. 373 |
| Case Studies | p. 375 |
| Introduction | p. 375 |
| Ecological Risk Assessment--Acidic Deposition | p. 375 |
| Arsenic and Cancer | p. 375 |
| Electromagnetic Fields | p. 376 |
| Environmental Tobacco Smoke | p. 376 |
| Indoor Air | p. 376 |
| Radon | p. 376 |
| Case Study: Ecological Risk Assessment--Acidic Deposition | p. 377 |
| Introduction | p. 377 |
| Problem Formulation | p. 379 |
| Analysis | p. 379 |
| Risk Characterization | p. 381 |
| References | p. 382 |
| Case Study: Arsenic | p. 382 |
| Introduction | p. 382 |
| Occurrence and Exposure | p. 383 |
| Non-Cancer Health Effects | p. 384 |
| Cancer | p. 385 |
| Modes of Action (Mechanisms) | p. 385 |
| Nutrition | p. 385 |
| Exposure-Response Curve | p. 386 |
| Conclusions | p. 386 |
| Drinking Water Standard for Arsenic | p. 387 |
| Conclusion | p. 388 |
| References | p. 388 |
| Case Study: Electromagnetic Fields | p. 388 |
| General | p. 389 |
| Risk Analysis | p. 389 |
| Conclusion | p. 389 |
| References | p. 390 |
| Case Study: Environmental Tobacco Smoke | p. 391 |
| Introduction | p. 391 |
| Background | p. 392 |
| Exposure | p. 392 |
| Hazard Assessment--Lung Cancer | p. 395 |
| Population Risk Estimates--Lung Cancer | p. 396 |
| Conclusions | p. 397 |
| References | p. 397 |
| Case Study: Indoor Air | p. 398 |
| Introduction | p. 398 |
| Common Symptoms and Responses | p. 399 |
| Possible Sources of Agents that May Cause Disease | p. 400 |
| Diagnosing Problem Buildings | p. 401 |
| Why Are Indoor Air Quality Problems Not Better Understood and Generally Not Addressed? | p. 402 |
| What Can We Do? | p. 403 |
| Conclusion | p. 404 |
| References | p. 404 |
| Case Study: Radon | p. 405 |
| Introduction | p. 405 |
| Why Is Radon Important? | p. 405 |
| Exposure: Mainly from Soils and Drinking Water | p. 407 |
| Epidemiological studies | p. 408 |
| Animal and Cellular Studies | p. 409 |
| Quantitative Risk Assessment | p. 409 |
| Public Reaction Is Widespread Apathy | p. 410 |
| Comparison between Risk Estimates for Exposure to Radon and Other Environmental Contaminants | p. 410 |
| References | p. 411 |
| Appendix | p. 412 |
| Index | p. 415 |
| Table of Contents provided by Syndetics. All Rights Reserved. |
ISBN: 9780865876965
ISBN-10: 0865876967
Published: 1st August 2000
Format: Hardcover
Language: English
Number of Pages: 433
Audience: General Adult
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing (AUS)
Country of Publication: US
Dimensions (cm): 27.05 x 18.77 x 3.33
Weight (kg): 1.02
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