Judgment in Managerial Decision Making

Chapter 1 Introduction to Managerial Decision Making 1

The Anatomy of Decisions 1

System 1 and System 2 Thinking 3

The Bounds of Human Attention and Rationality 5

Introduction to Judgmental Heuristics 7

An Outline of Things to Come 10

Chapter 2 Overconfidence 14

The Mother of All Biases 14

Overprecision 16

Overestimation 22

Overplacement 26

Let's Hear it for Well-Calibrated Decision Making 28

Chapter 3 Common Biases 31

Biases Emanating from the Availability Heuristic 34

Biases Emanating from the Representativeness Heuristic 38

Biases Emanating from the Confirmation Heuristic 46

Integration and Commentary 57

Chapter 4 Bounded Awareness 60

Inattentional Blindness 65

Change Blindness 66

Focalism and the Focusing Illusion 67

Bounded Awareness in Groups 69

Bounded Awareness in Strategic Settings 71

Discussion 81

Chapter 5 Framing and the Reversal of Preferences 82

Framing and the Irrationality of the Sum of Our Choices 85

We Like Certainty, Even Pseudocertainty 87

Framing and The Overselling of Insurance 90

What's It Worth to You? 91

The Value We Place on What We Own 93

Mental Accounting 94

Rebate/Bonus Framing 96

Joint-versus-Separate Preference Reversals 98

Conclusion and Integration 100

Chapter 6 Motivational and Emotional Influences on Decision Making 103

When Emotion and Cognition Collide 105

Self-Serving Reasoning 112

Emotional Influences on Decision Making 114

Summary 117

Chapter 7 The Escalation of Commitment 119

The Unilateral Escalation Paradigm 121

The Competitive Escalation Paradigm 123

Why Does Escalation Occur? 127

Integration 131

Chapter 8 Fairness and Ethics in Decision Making 132

Perceptions of Fairness 133

When We Resist "Unfair" Ultimatums 135

When We are Concerned about the Outcomes of Others 139

Why do Fairness Judgments Matter? 142

Bounded Ethicality 143

Overclaiming Credit 145

In-Group Favoritism 146

Implicit Attitudes 147

Indirectly Unethical Behavior 151

When Values Seem Sacred 152

The Psychology of Conflicts of Interest 154

Conclusion 158

Chapter 9 Common Investment Mistakes 160

The Psychology of Poor Investment Decisions 162

Active Trading 170

Action Steps 171

Chapter 10 Making Rational Decisions in Negotiations 175

A Decision-Analytic Approach to Negotiations 176

Claiming Value in Negotiation 179

Creating Value in Negotiation 180

The Tools of Value Creation 185

Summary and Critique 191

Chapter 11 Negotiator Cognition 193

The Mythical Fixed Pie of Negotiation 193

The Framing of Negotiator Judgment 195

Escalation of Conflict 196

Overestimating Your Value in Negotiation 198

Self-Serving Biases in Negotiation 200

Anchoring in Negotiation 203

Conclusions 205

Chapter 12 Improving Decision Making 206

Strategy 1: Use Decision-Analysis Tools 208

Strategy 2: Acquire Expertise 213

Strategy 3: Debias Your Judgment 216

Strategy 4: Reason Analogically 219

Strategy 5: Take an Outsider's View 222

Strategy 6: Understand Biases in Others 223

Strategy 7: Nudge Wiser and More Ethical Decisions 226

Conclusion 228

References 231

Index 261

Index 743

Subject Index 751