Mediated Modeling

Table of contents ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION A FULL WORLD ON AN UNSUSTAINABLE COURSE TIME SCALE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN POLICY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES BOUNDED RATIONALITY HUMAN AND NATURAL SYSTEMS ARE INTERLINKED IN COMPLEX WAYS DECISION- AND POLICY-MAKING IS OFTEN COMPARTMENTALIZED AND FRAGMENTED KNOWLEDGE ACCUMULATION BY EXPERTS RELATION BETWEEN POLICY AND AFFECTED STAKEHOLDERS ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS CONSENSUS BUILDING MOVE TOWARD INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS, ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT AND COLLABORATIVE LEARNING CONCLUSION CHAPTER 2 THE ROLE OF MEDIATED MODELING PARTICIPATORY MODELING MEDIATED MODELING INTELLECTUAL ROOTS OF MEDIATED MODELING Ecological Economics System dynamics thinking Organizational learning Social psychology OTHER CONCEPTS AND TOOLS DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS MEDIATED MODELING AS A STARTING POINT OR AS A COMPLEMENTARY TOOL CONCLUSION CHAPTER 3 THE MEDIATED MODELING PROCESS WHY SHOULD A MEDIATED MODELING PROJECT BE UNDERTAKEN? OUTLINE OF A MEDIATED MODELING PROCESS ADAPTIVE AND COLLABORATIVE MANAGEMENT PARTICIPANTS AND ROLES THE MEDIATED MODELER The action researcher TIMEFRAME WHAT ARE THE RESULTS TO BE EXPECTED? Defining success Disseminating results CONCLUSION CHAPTER 4 CONDUCTING A MEDIATED MODELING PROCESS STEP 1: PREPARATION The participant group Identifying stakeholders Introductory interview STEP 2: WORKSHOPS Workshop Stage 1: Introduction Workshop Stage 2: Problem definition Workshop Stage 3: Qualitative model Workshop Stage 4: Quantitative model Workshop Stage 5: Testing, scenarios and conclusions Personalities and confidence in the model STEP 3: FOLLOW UP AND TUTORIAL Tutorial Follow up interviews, written report and final model CONCLUSION Case Studies CHAPTER 5 DECISION SUPPORT FOR WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN THE UPPER FOX RIVER BASIN, WISCONSIN, U.S.A. By Marjan van den Belt, Robert Wenger and Bud Harris STAKEHOLDERS THE UPPER FOX MODELING PROCESS FIRST MEETING SECOND MEETING THIRD MEETING External Forces model sector FOURTH MEETING Land use model sector FIFTH MEETING Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services sector Management model sector SIXTH MEETING Socio-Economic activities model sector SEVENTH AND EIGHTH MEETING Calibration of the Upper Fox model NINTH MEETING Scenarios Questions revisited Recommendations and observations toward policy action PRACTICING MODEL PRESENTATION FOLLOW UP SURVEY WHAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE 1998 IN THE UPPER FOX GMU DISCUSSION QUESTIONS CHAPTER 6 USING MEDIATED MODELING TO FACILITATE COLLABORATIVE LEARNING AMONG RESIDENTS OF THE SAN ANTONIO WATERSHED, TEXAS, U.S.A. By Tarla Rai Peterson, Ann Kenimer, William E. Grant SOCIO-ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLEXITY IN THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASIN Recruitment of participants Attendance and participation Level of Conflict COLLABORATIVE LEARNING MODELING APPROACHES Example of modeling exercise with low stakeholder involvement (BASINS-HSPF) Example of modeling exercise with more stakeholder involvement (Flow Model) MEDIATED MODELING AS A LEARNING TOOL Quantitative model specification Model evaluation Model use LESSONS LEARNED DISCUSSION QUESTIONS CHAPTER 7 FUTURES PLANNING: BANFF NATIONAL PARK By Laura Cornwell BACKGROUND Banff National Park Banff-Bow Valley Study Ecological outlooks project The modeling proces THE RESULTING MODEL Social indicators Ecological indicators RESULTS Social indicators Ecological indicators CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION QUESTIONS CHAPTER 8 SAGE GROUSE POPULATIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO, U.S.A.: EFFECT OF SHEEP GRAZING AND FIRE By Ellen K. Pedersen and William E. Grant MODELING PROCESS First workshop Second workshop THE RESULTING MODEL Scenarios Results of the simulations CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION QUESTIONS CHAPTER 9 DECISION SUPPORT IN COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT IN THE RIA FORMOSA, PORTUGAL By Nuno Videira, Marjan van den Belt, Paula Antunes, Rui Santos and Sofia Gamito THE KEY ISSUES HOW THE MEDIATED MODELING PROCESS IN THE RIA FORMOSA GOT STARTED WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS DECISION MAKERS TOTAL THE RIA FORMOSA MODELING PROCESS First meeting Second meeting Third meeting Fourth meeting RECOMMENDATIONS DISCUSSION QUESTIONS CHAPTER 10 LESSONS LEARNED APPENDIX 1: COMPARISON OF THE CASE STUDIES APPENDIX 2: TRADEMARK INFORMATION SYSTEMS DYNAMICS MODELING SOFTWARE APPENDIX 3: RANKED STATEMENTS OF THE UPPER FOX SURVEY APPENDIX 4: FULL ANSWERS TO UPPER FOX SURVEY APPENDIX 5: THE RIA FORMOSA MODEL: STRUCTURE AND EQUATIONS APPENDIX 6: RATING OF UPPER FOX MODEL PARAMETERS APPENDIX 7: RATING OF RIA FORMOSA MODEL PARAMETERS APPENDIX 8: ASSUMPTIONS FOR BANFF-BOW VALLEY FUTURES MODEL INDICATORS APPENDIX 9: SYMBOL DEFINITION AND MATHEMATICAL ALGORITHMS FOR ALL MODEL COMPONENTS IN THE BANFF-BOW VALLEY STUDY FUTURES MODEL APPENDIX 10: An example to illustrate the software: APPENDIX 11: R-squared template in STELLA icons REFERENCES

Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication: Environmental sciences Simulation methods, Environmental management Decision making