Pensions and Population Ageing : An Economic Analysis

By: John Creedy

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Population ageing is an important trend that will be experienced in industrialised countries in the early part of the next century. This work examines aspects of population ageing and pensions, with an emphasis on the design and use of simple economic models.

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List of Figures	p. xi
List of Tables	p. xiii
Acknowledgements	p. xv
Introduction
Introduction and Outline	p. 1
Demographic Transitions	p. 2
The Dependency Ratio	p. 4
A Dynamic Formulation	p. 5
Some Numerical Examples	p. 8
Outline of Future Chapters	p. 10
Ageing and Social Expenditure
Population Ageing and Expenditure	p. 19
Population Projections	p. 19
A Social Accounting Framework	p. 19
Stable Populations	p. 21
Social Expenditure	p. 23
Hypothetical Examples	p. 26
Social Expenditure Projections	p. 29
The Framework of Analysis	p. 30
Projecting Social Expenditure	p. 30
Projecting GDP	p. 31
Changes in Productivity Growth	p. 33
Changing Labour Market Assumptions	p. 33
The Data	p. 35
Demographic Data	p. 35
Social Expenditure Data	p. 38
Labour Force Data	p. 43
Benchmark Projections	p. 44
Employment and the Labour Force	p. 45
Social Expenditure	p. 47
Sensitivity Analysis	p. 48
Real Public Spending Growth	p. 49
The Labour Market	p. 49
Unemployment Rates	p. 50
Labour Force Participation Rates	p. 51
Changing Demographic Assumptions	p. 52
Two Variations	p. 53
Conclusions	p. 54
Migration and Population Ageing	p. 57
Benchmark Projections	p. 58
Data Sources	p. 60
Population Decomposition	p. 61
Age Structure	p. 62
Fertility	p. 62
Mortality	p. 63
Alternative Projections	p. 64
Settler Arrivals	p. 65
Permanent Departures	p. 65
Population Projections	p. 67
Changing the Level and Composition of Overseas Migration	p. 69
Immigration versus Fertility	p. 71
Conclusions	p. 73
Economic Models and Pensions
Policy Trade-offs and Pension Systems	p. 77
A General Approach	p. 78
Specification of Tax Structures	p. 81
Income Tax	p. 81
A Means-tested Pension	p. 83
The Payroll Tax	p. 84
Trade-offs in the Means-tested System	p. 86
Changes in b and t	p. 86
Changes in s and t	p. 88
Changing y[subscript e] and t	p. 89
Trade-offs in the Multi-tax System	p. 90
Changes in b and t	p. 90
Changes in v and t	p. 91
Changes in c and t	p. 92
Conclusions	p. 93
Private versus Public Pensions	p. 95
A Two-period Model	p. 96
Private Pensions	p. 96
Social Transfers	p. 97
Higher Longevity	p. 98
Private Pensions	p. 98
Social Transfers	p. 99
Labour Supply Variations	p. 101
Private Pensions	p. 101
Social Transfers	p. 102
The Optimal Tax Rate	p. 104
Conclusions	p. 107
Pensions and Contracting Out	p. 109
Market Failure	p. 109
Risk Pooling	p. 109
Market Failure and Self Selection	p. 111
A Government Pension Scheme	p. 112
A Two-period Model	p. 112
Contracting Out of the State Scheme	p. 114
A Formal Statement	p. 116
Conclusions	p. 118
Two-tier State Pensions	p. 119
The Two-period Model	p. 120
Earnings-related Pensions and Labour Supply	p. 120
The Government Budget Constraint	p. 125
Tax and Benefit Levels	p. 130
Equity and Efficiency	p. 132
Conclusions	p. 138
Pensions and Compensating Variations	p. 139
Previous Literature	p. 140
The Basic Model	p. 142
A Flat-rate Pension	p. 142
An Earnings-related Pension	p. 144
Specific Functional Forms	p. 146
A Flat-rate Pension	p. 147
An Earnings-related Pension	p. 148
Alternative Comparisons	p. 149
Conclusions	p. 150
Lifetime Simulations
Alternative Pension Systems	p. 155
Retirement Income Programmes	p. 156
International Context and Developments	p. 156
Unique Australian Characteristics	p. 157
The Australian System	p. 161
Superannuation Taxation Before Retirement	p. 161
Taxation in Retirement	p. 162
Eligibility for the Age Pension	p. 163
Retirement Decisions	p. 165
Alternative Reforms	p. 166
The Simulation Model	p. 171
Earnings Profiles	p. 171
Age at Death	p. 172
Economic Assumptions	p. 172
Some Comparisons	p. 172
Conclusions	p. 176
Modelling Retirement Decisions	p. 179
Retirement Decisions	p. 181
The Range of Routes Available	p. 181
Individual Evaluation of Routes	p. 183
Optimal Choice of Route	p. 187
The Effect of Policy Changes	p. 191
Alternative Structures	p. 191
Results of Optimal Choices	p. 192
Lifetime Redistribution	p. 195
Summary Measures	p. 196
Simulation Results	p. 199
Conclusions	p. 202
The Choice of Early Retirement Age	p. 205
Retirement Decisions	p. 207
The Range of Routes Available	p. 207
Evaluation of Retirement Choice	p. 209
Annuity Rates	p. 210
Simulation Results	p. 212
Common Mortality	p. 212
A Universal Pension	p. 216
Differential Mortality	p. 217
Earnings Profiles	p. 218
Contribution Rates	p. 223
Conclusions	p. 225
Bibliography	p. 227
Index	p. 239
Table of Contents provided by Syndetics. All Rights Reserved.

Pensions and Population Ageing : An Economic Analysis

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