| Contributors | p. ix |
| Foreword | p. xi |
| Introduction | p. 1 |
| Acknowledgments | p. 2 |
| From Richardson to early numerical weather prediction | p. 3 |
| Pioneers of scientific forecasting | p. 3 |
| Pre-computer forecasting | p. 6 |
| Key developments, 1920-1950 | p. 8 |
| The ENIAC integrations | p. 9 |
| Advancing computer technology | p. 11 |
| Climate modeling | p. 13 |
| Uncertainty and probability | p. 14 |
| Dreams fulfilled | p. 15 |
| References | p. 16 |
| The evolution and future research goals for general circulation models | p. 18 |
| Introduction | p. 18 |
| Evolution of general circulation modeling efforts | p. 23 |
| Future goals for climate and Earth system modeling | p. 36 |
| Acknowledgments | p. 42 |
| References | p. 42 |
| Appendix | p. 46 |
| Beyond prediction to climate modeling and climate control: New perspectives from the papers of Harry Wexler, 1945-1962 | p. 51 |
| On the possibilities of climate control | p. 51 |
| Computers and meteorology, 1945-1946 | p. 52 |
| Fantasies of control | p. 60 |
| Computers and meteorology, 1947-1948 | p. 62 |
| Wexler's key contributions in other areas | p. 63 |
| Climate change and the general circulation | p. 66 |
| Gilbert Plass and CO2 modeling | p. 66 |
| Harry Wexler's article and final lectures on climate control | p. 68 |
| Conclusion | p. 71 |
| References | p. 72 |
| Synergies between numerical weather prediction and general circulation climate models | p. 76 |
| Background and motivation | p. 76 |
| Seamless prediction across a range of space scales | p. 81 |
| Seamless prediction across a range of time scales | p. 89 |
| Benefits of shared development | p. 98 |
| Conclusion and future exploitation | p. 106 |
| Acknowledgments | p. 107 |
| References | p. 108 |
| Contributions of observational studies to the evaluation and diagnosis of atmospheric GCM simulations | p. 117 |
| Introduction | p. 117 |
| The early years - energy cycle, zonal-mean circulation, and regional climatology | p. 118 |
| Shift of attention to longitudinal and frequency dependence of atmospheric variability | p. 122 |
| Diagnoses of local interactions between transient eddies and the time-mean circulation | p. 131 |
| Experimentations on interactions with SST conditions at various sites | p. 135 |
| Discussion and future prospects | p. 141 |
| Acknowledgments | p. 143 |
| References | p. 144 |
| Coupling atmospheric general circulation to oceans | p. 148 |
| Introduction | p. 148 |
| Ocean models | p. 149 |
| Coupled models compared to observations | p. 153 |
| Paleoclimate | p. 157 |
| El Niño | p. 158 |
| Multi-decadal climate variability | p. 162 |
| Future challenges and opportunities for coupled models | p. 171 |
| Acknowledgments | p. 172 |
| References | p. 172 |
| Coupling atmospheric circulation models to biophysical, biochemical, and biological processes at the land surface | p. 177 |
| Beginnings of modeling the land surface as a component of GCMs | p. 177 |
| Land's role in climate variability and change | p. 179 |
| The introduction of dynamic vegetation | p. 184 |
| Coupling to the carbon cycle | p. 185 |
| Concluding discussion | p. 193 |
| References | p. 194 |
| The evolution of complexity in general circulation models | p. 202 |
| Introduction | p. 202 |
| In the beginning | p. 203 |
| Numerics | p. 206 |
| Parameterizations | p. 208 |
| From academia to enterprise: a loss of innocence | p. 212 |
| Peta-flops and giga-grids | p. 214 |
| Conclusions | p. 220 |
| Acknowledgments | p. 221 |
| References | p. 221 |
| The co-evolution of climate models and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change | p. 225 |
| Historical development of global climate models in the IPCC context | p. 225 |
| The beginnings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) | p. 229 |
| The First Assessment Report (FAR) of the IPCC (1990) | p. 230 |
| The Second Assessment Report (SAR) and Third Assessment Report (TAR) | p. 233 |
| IPCC and the policy debate regarding human effects on climate change | p. 234 |
| The IPCC process | p. 236 |
| An example of model evolution in the IPCC context: cloud processes | p. 240 |
| Coupled models | p. 242 |
| The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and the future of the IPCC | p. 244 |
| References | p. 251 |
| Index | p. 253 |
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