About the Authors xi
Foreword xiii
Preface xv
Acknowledgments xvii
1 Introduction 1
1.1 The Art of Climate Resilience 1
1.2 Climate Risk in Power Infrastructure 4
1.3 Resilience Metrics in Power Systems 8
1.4 Economic Impacts of Climate Shocks and Natural Disasters 10
1.5 Overview 12
References 13
2 The Economics of Financial Resilience Against Natural Disasters 17
2.1 Principles of Risk Management 17
2.1.1 A Three-Lines-of-Defense Framework 17
2.1.2 Operational and Financial Resilience 18
2.2 Climate Risk Financing Mechanisms 21
2.3 A Financial Resilience Building Framework Using CAT Bonds 26
2.4 Wildfire Simulation Modeling 28
2.4.1 Geographic Data 28
2.4.2 Meteorological Data 29
2.4.3 Power Grid Data 29
2.4.4 Ignition Points 29
2.5 Case Studies 31
2.5.1 Total Damages 31
2.5.2 Total Cost 32
2.5.3 Premium Calculation 33
2.6 Summary 34
References 35
3 The Economics of Resilience-Centered Asset Management 37
3.1 Principles of Resilience-Centered Asset Management 37
3.2 Economic Variables for Resilience-Centered Asset Management 41
3.2.1 State Space 42
3.2.2 Hurricane Survival Modeling 44
3.2.3 Transition Probabilities 47
3.2.4 Action Space 48
3.3 Economic Asset Management Model 49
3.3.1 Problem Formulation 49
3.3.2 Solution Method 51
3.4 Case Study 53
3.5 Summary 61
References 62
4 The Economics of Capacity Planning for Climate Shocks 67
4.1 Principles of Resilience Investment 67
4.2 Climate Risk Assessment Variables 70
4.3 An Economic Model for Resilience Investment 71
4.3.1 Heatwave Risk Modeling 72
4.3.2 Load Forecasting 73
4.3.3 Stochastic Dynamic Thermal Rating 74
4.3.4 Stochastic Power Dispatch 76
4.3.5 Solution Scheme 77
4.4 A Heatwave Case Study 78
4.5 Summary 84
References 85
5 The Economics of Resilience Planning in Power Infrastructure Expansion 89
5.1 Background 89
5.2 Economic Variables for Expansion Planning 91
5.2.1 Investment Problem 92
5.2.2 Security and Optimal Operation Problems 92
5.2.3 Topology Control 93
5.2.4 Cuts 93
5.2.5 Solution Procedure 93
5.3 An Economic Model for Resilience Planning in Infrastructure Expansion 94
5.3.1 Optimal Plan 95
5.3.2 Security Check 96
5.3.3 Optimal Operation 99
5.4 Case Studies 100
5.4.1 Six-Bus System 100
5.4.2 IEEE 118-Bus System 105
5.5 Summary 112
References 113
6 The Economics of Operational Risk Management in the Face of Natural Disasters 117
6.1 Principles of Operations Management Against Wildfires 117
6.2 Variables for Quantifying Risk and Vulnerability Against Wildfires 121
6.2.1 Closing the Data Gap 121
6.2.2 Wildfire Scenarios Generation 123
6.2.3 Wildfire Spread Simulation 123
6.2.4 Impact Analysis 124
6.2.5 Network Modification 124
6.2.5.1 Impacted Components Removal 124
6.2.5.2 Virtual High-Cost Generators Placement 125
6.3 A Model for Quantifying Risk and Vulnerability Against Wildfires 126
6.3.1 Power Flow Analysis 126
6.3.2 Data Analysis 127
6.3.2.1 Vulnerability 127
6.3.2.2 Risk 128
6.3.2.3 Impact 128
6.4 A Case Study for Wildfires 128
6.5 Summary 138
References 138
7 The Economics of Pre-Disaster Resource Mobilization 143
7.1 Principles of Resource Mobilization 143
7.2 Economic Variables in Resource Mobilization 146
7.3 An Economic Model for Pre-Event Resource Mobilization 147
7.3.1 Objective Function 148
7.3.2 Constraints 149
7.3.2.1 Resource Constraint 149
7.3.2.2 Damage State of Generation Units 149
7.3.2.3 Damage State of Substations 150
7.3.2.4 Damage State of Transmission Lines 150
7.3.2.5 Load Balance Constraint 151
7.3.2.6 Power Generation Constraints 151
7.3.2.7 Power Flow Constraints 151
7.3.2.8 Unit Commitment Constraints 152
7.3.2.9 Nonanticipativity 152
7.3.3 Proposed Solution Scheme 153
7.3.3.1 Scenario Construction and Reduction 153
7.3.3.2 Decomposition Strategy 153
7.4 A Case Study for Hurricanes 155
7.5 Summary 159
References 160
8 The Economics of Contingency Planning Under Extreme Events 163
8.1 Background 163
8.2 An Economic Model for Contingency Planning 167
8.2.1 UC Problem (Optimal Hourly Schedule of Units) 167
8.2.2 TC Problem 167
8.2.2.1 TC Feasibility Check 167
8.2.2.2 Optimal TC Scheduling 169
8.2.2.3 Transmission Check in Contingencies 170
8.3 Case Studies 172
8.3.1 Six-Bus System 172
8.3.2 IEEE 118-Bus System 177
8.4 Summary 183
References 184
9 The Economics of Decentralization Through Microgrids 187
9.1 Principles of Microgrids 187
9.2 Economic Variables for Decentralized Power Systems 190
9.3 An Economic Model for Resilience-Oriented Microgrid Operations 192
9.4 Case Study 197
9.5 Summary 203
References 203
10 The Economics of Post-Disaster Restoration 207
10.1 Principles of Power System Restoration 207
10.1.1 Planning Stage 207
10.1.2 Operating Stage 209
10.2 Economic Variables in System Restoration 211
10.3 A Generic Economic Model for Post-Disaster Restoration 212
10.3.1 Objective Function 212
10.3.2 Constraints 213
10.3.2.1 Damage State Modeling 213
10.3.2.2 Resource Constraints 214
10.3.2.3 Load Balance Constraints 215
10.3.2.4 Real Power Generation Constraints 215
10.3.2.5 Power Flow Constraints 216
10.3.2.6 Startup and Shutdown Cost Constraints 216
10.3.2.7 Full Restoration Constraint 217
10.3.2.8 Ramp-Up and Ramp-Down Constraints 217
10.3.2.9 Minimum Up-Time and Down-Time Constraints 218
10.3.3 Decomposition Strategy 219
10.4 Case Study 220
10.5 Summary 226
References 227
Index 231
