Scenario Logic and Probabilistic Management of Risk in Business and Engineering

Cover -- Table of Contents -- Foreword -- Introduction -- Acronyms and general notations -- Chapter 1. MANAGEMENT AND RISK -- 1.1. History of Interrelation of Management and Risk -- 1.2. Reasons and consequences of large accidents -- 1.3. The most dangerous industry branches -- 1.4. Values of risk and damage -- 1.5. Sources of accidents depending on humans -- 1.6. Risk management and insurance -- 1.7. Monitoring and risk -- 1.8. State safety program of Russia -- 1.9. Methods of nonlinear mechanics and probability theory for accidents -- 1.10. Scenario LP-modelling and management of non-success risk -- Chapter 2. THE HUMAN BEING AND RISKS -- 2.1. Frauds in business -- 2.2. Errors of personnel -- 2.3. Asymmetric actions of terrorists -- 2.4. Hackers attacks to informational networks -- 2.5. Personnel in modern civilization -- Chapter 3. PRINCIPLES OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN DESIGN -- 3.1. Style, concepts and methods of designers -- 3.2. General scientific knowledge in the area of risk -- 3.3. Models and rules -- 3.4. Occam's razor -- 3.5. Physical approach -- 3.6. Scheme of complex object management -- 3.7. Minimization of the number of decisions -- 3.8. Structural design -- 3.9. Concept of the acceptable risk -- 3.10. Markowitz's and VaR-approach to investment risk -- 3.11. Active and passive management of risk -- 3.12. Algorithmic calculations -- 3.13. Arithmetical and logical addition -- Chapter 4. RISK MANAGEMENT AT DEBUGGING TESTS -- 4.1. Definition of debugging tests -- 4.2. Analysis of debugging process -- 4.3. Management of debugging process -- 4.4. Technology of debugging tests -- 4.5. Non-success risk scenarios of debugging -- 4.6. Structural and LP-models of debugging non-success risk -- 4.7. Complexity of debugging -- 4.8. Development of the debugging program -- 4.9. Risk management in operating tests -- Chapter 5. RISK MANAGEMENT IN OPERATION ON BASIS OF MONITORING -- 5.1. Destruction, wearing and deterioration of equipments in operation -- 5.2. Monitoring in engineering -- 5.3. Monitoring of infrastructure of rocket launcher -- Chapter 6. RISK MANAGEMENT ON DANGEROUS PLANT -- 6.1. Difficult problems -- 6.2. Management of risk -- 6.3. Financing of the risk management process -- 6.4. Reliability regulation of engineering and a person -- 6.5. Consideration of natural and man-caused accidents -- 6.6. Probability of poor organization -- Chapter 7. BASES OF LOGIC AND PROBABILISTIC CALCULUS -- 7.1. Some information from Boolean algebra -- 7.2. Basic logical operations -- 7.3. Basic definitions and accepted notations -- 7.4. Some theorems of Boolean algebra and probabilistic logic -- Chapter 8. LOGIC AND PROBABILISTIC METHOD AND RISK -- 8.1. Basic concepts and definitions of the theory of risk and safety -- 8.2. The basic principles of the LP-method -- 8.3. Transformation of L-function to P-polynomial -- 8.4. "Weight" of the argument in the L-function -- 8.5. "Importance" of elements in a system -- 8.6. Example of construction of the L-function of danger -- Chapter 9. AUTOMATED STRUCTURAL AND LOGICAL MODELLING -- 9.1. Problems of LP-modelling -- 9.2. Risk scenario of a railway accident -- 9.3. Idea of development of LP-modelling --tidti.